I take Germany to beat Brazil tonight in the first 2014 World Cup semi-final. Sorry, Brazil, but I just don’t think you have what it takes to go any further.
Back in January, I went with Brazil to win the World Cup and so far they’ve done enough to get to this stage. Enough. Not sparkled, not dominated, not really put teams to the sword as their fans might like to see.
Tonight for me, is where the Brazil 2014 fairytale will end.
It’s not quite as simple as no Neymar, no Thiago Silva, no chance, but missing those players is a huge factor. Even before Neymar was ruled out, I would have gone for the Germans:
Apart from the opening match against Croatia, where they can be forgiven a few opening night nerves and they were greatly assisted by the officials, Brazil haven’t yet had to come back from behind and I don’t think they can do it.
Against Mexico, they failed to score. Against a poor Cameroon side they went ahead but allowed an equaliser before running away with it.
Chile could, and perhaps should, have won in the second round, hitting the bar late on and taking the team to penalties and Colombia also pushed them very hard. Crucially both teams scored and I can’t see a Brazilian defence minus Thiago keeping a clean sheet.
And that could well be crucial. Once the Germans get ahead – as they did against France – they are incredibly hard to beat.
It sounds clichéd but it’s true.
Now they are back to full strength with Hummels standing firm at the back ahead of Manuel Neuer, who almost plays as a sweeper, I see them having the goals, the discipline and the tactical nous to see off the hosts.
2-0 Germany for me – revenge, if you like for 2002.
Oh, and one more thing – Brazil can quit moaning about the foul on Neymar that has ended his tournament. After all, they spent most of the game going after James Rodríguez in similar fashion.
If you can’t take it, don’t give it out. Get well soon Neymar, but you can partially thank your team-mates for your pain.